THE O-MAN's Stock Forecast for (QID)
Submitted by THE O-MAN on Fri, 01/11/2008 - 17:48.
Thesis:
Stock
PT UTLRSHRT QQQ P (QID)
Target
From $44.32 to $50.00
Target Date
4/1/2008
Hit target on: January 25, 2008
Hit target on: January 25, 2008
Current Price
$40.33
Thesis:
At the end of the day TECH has been extremely overbought. Tech. bulls have been hanging on the there one shining star, Best Buy (BBY). A disappointing x mas will lead to a piling up of inventory.
tough one
may have had one tough day, but the rest seem to have been not so much. good progress so far o-man. is that your Halloween costume above?
ouch tough day for this
ouch tough day for this forecast
don't disagree
o-man- i don't disagree with the forecast, but i am not sure it'd be on 'overbought' premises. i think the downward revisions in growth because of the economy will be the real factor.
Overbought
RIMM and AAPL not overbought? The story that I have heard from these guys in my ear all day say (CNBC) is that Tech. was going to avoid the slowdown, now in the past month they have changed their tune. I think the reason that their is tech slowdown my have to retail supply chain that is completely saturated. This long winded but very insightful. It is by Fred Hickey author of the "High Tech Strategist".
"While RIMM is shipping lots of units (3.1 million in the 4Q) , more and more of the shipped units are not being activated. A little over a yr ago the number RIMM phones shipped just about equaled the number activated in the quarter. Then, for three consecutive quarters the gap between the number of phones shipped and activated jumped to between 200,000 to 250,000 each quarter- a total of 650,000 more phones shipped than activated. In the latest reported quarter the gap jumped again to 400,000 more shipped than activated., double the level of the prior quarter. Some people call this channel stuffing." I'll call it channel filling. But whatever you want to call it, 400,000 more units shipped were not turned on by customers...It is possible that under pressure to make or slightly beat the number either salespeople or RIMM management might have gotten a bit too aggressive...Another strange sight this month was a full page ad in the Wall Street Journal from CDW that highlighted just three products: an HP notebook and two RIMM blackberry models. Note, CDW has historically been a leader reseller of COMPUTERS and they have never sold phones, or at least not that I can remember."
See where Fred was going with this? Global slowdown, yes. Expectations that were way too high and thus the stocks were overbought, also a YES.
same thing
Global slow down and overbought essentially mean the same thing anyway.