THE O-MAN's Stock Forecast for IPATH ETN CRUDE O (OIL)
Submitted by THE O-MAN on Fri, 03/07/2008 - 00:53.
Thesis:
Stock
(OIL)
Target
From $61.89 to $67.00
Target Date
11/25/2008
Hit target on: April 15, 2008
Hit target on: April 15, 2008
Current Price
$
Thesis:
PEAK OIL- I agree that may be plenty of oil out the to satisfy demand, however it is becoming much more expensive to get out of the ground. Furthermore there are far too many reasons for oil to conitune its rally. Fog in the shipping channels, hurricanes, political instability etc etc etc.
peak oil
PEAK oil is like global warming = not true
Peak Oil not true...
The science of peak oil has been proven over and over again throughout history.
Prudhoe Bay, West Texas, Cantarell etc etc etc ....All of these fields saw production fall off dramatically after they hit their peak. To say that the Gharwar won't peak is non sense. Abqaiq already peaked but has some production restored as of 2006.
Anyways I suggest you read some of CERA global outlooks (mind CERA is constantly proven WRONG) and read Twilight in the Desert. Then we will talk.
UCR
Isn't UCR a cheaper way to be long oil?
Maybe....
Its very possible but please explain. Are talking about expense ratio's in terms of management fees? I am unfamiliar with UCR. How do they track oil (futures or spot)? I believe over the past five days UCR has out performed OIL but only marginally. I have been in and out of OIL for the past year and I have found that it is have out performed WTI futures 1 month delivery more often then not, so I am happy with the iPath as managers. However if there is a way that UCR can give me more bang for my buck let me know. TTYL.
Also, currently I am actually short oil via the ETF contest through DUG (twice the inverse of WTI), but just for a short term trade.
wondering...
how would you find this out?
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